Thursday, June 05, 2014

A Blindfolded Monkey Beats the Market

主動式投資績效無法打敗市場 (被動式投資/指數化投資) 這個已不是新聞,學術界也已經有很多研究證明,甚至還有商學院的教授自嘲說他們這些拿高薪教財務的人一天到晚跟學生說大家無法打敗市場,然後學生畢業出去每個都認為自己可以辦得到。

沒想到連猴子射飛鏢選股 (隨機選股+隨機配置權重),投資績效也勝過市場 (大盤指數)。

“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages,” wrote Burton Malkiel in “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, his 1973 bestseller, “could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts”. 
Some researchers have also contested his prediction, but not because they think that he exaggerated the power of randomly picking stocks; rather that he was too modest. 

Simulating a dart-throwing monkey has resulted in portfolios that would not just beat many investors, but also outperform the market.

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